Technical Analysis

FX Weekly: Short USD, Long EUR/USD

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    Overall drivers of currency markets are anchor pairs and 5, 10-year, and longer-term averages. On big trade days such as and Fed releases, the anchor currencies are first to respond and easily outperform cross pairs.

    Cross pairs are not only secondary to responses, but the trade reaction is not seen sometimes until the 2nd day of the release. The last CPI release was the perfect example.

    On big trade days, the best pairs to trade for most profit are , , , Vs and . Overall best are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CAD. Preeminent cross-pair trades are JPY as elite to most pip moves.

    EUR/USD and GBP/USD as wider ranges to AUD/USD and NZD/USD dictate pip movements. EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade more pips per trade day than AUD/USD and NZD/USD. GBP/USD Vs. USD/CAD is a 50/ 50 proposition.

    On certain days GBP/USD trades more pips than USD/CAD, while on other days, USD/CAD leads the way for most pips. On rare days, each trades the same amount of pips or in extreme proximity.

    Currencies trading normally over past months as follows: , , , , and USD/CAD. Trading normally to daily trades in terms of entries and targets traded for roughly 100 pip days. GBP/AUD’s 400 pip drop on Friday eliminates normality.

    5-Year Averages

    DXY trades 1800 pips above its 5-year average and 1700 pips from the 50-year monthly average, while USD/JPY trades 3100 pips from its five-year average at 111.85.

    USD/CAD trades 300 pips from its five-year average at 1.2900’s and 1100 pips from the ten-year at 1.2400’s. EUR/USD trades 1600 pips from its five-year average at 1.1400, GBP/USD 2200 pips from 1.3100, AUD/USD 700 pips from 0.7200’s, and NZD/USD 1000 pips from 0.6700’s.

    EUR/USD from March 1985 lows and monthly averages at 0.6500’s to 1.5700 highs in July 2008 contains a midpoint at 1.1152.

    The Week Ahead

    This week, trades are predominately one-sided as USD shorts to USD/CAD and USD/JPY while long GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/UD, and NZD/USD. Targets for EUR, GBP. AUD and NZD leave all currencies in deeply oversold territory, so no shorts are possible.

    Trade Rankings

    EUR/USD, AUD/USD, , NZD/USD, USD/CAD, , EUR/CAD, , , USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, , EUR/NZD, and EUR/AUD.

    USD/CHF

    Massive overbought levels on the way down: 0.9779, 0.9751, 0.9723 and 0.9695 target.

    Weekly Trade

    Long 0.9638 and 0.9634 to target 0.9782. No short is possible as continuation trades.

    JPY Cross Pairs

    NZD/JPY and earn rankings as most oversold. Higher for GBP/JPY must break 162.00’s. GBP/JPY trade to 160.00’s and 161/;s normalizes current price from 155.00’s.CAD/JPY is least favored over AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

    USD/JPY weekly range trades in wide intervals from 143.00 to 146.00’s.

    EUR/NZD V GBP/NZD

    Massive divergence remains yet widened from last week as EUR/NZD trades massively overbought against its vital point at 1.6500’s while trades severely oversold and a big break for higher at 1.9200’s.

    For EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD to align correctly may take weeks.

    EUR/AUD Vs. GBP/AUD

    EUR/AUD trades just below vital 1.4831 vs. deeply oversold GBP/AUD at 1.7200s.

    CHF Cross Pairs

    CHF cross pairs all align as deep oversold and ready to travel higher. and are priorities, then NZD/CHF, AUD/CHF, and CAD/CHF.

    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD not only trades overbought, but 5, 10, and 14-year averages achieved targets at 1.3588, 1.3400, and 1.3200’s. The good target for the week is 1.3399 and is on the way to 1.3200’s. USD/CAD short is the only trade available.

    CAD Cross Pairs

    Best trades long: , and . Nothing exciting to EUR/CAD this week.

    NZD Vs. AUD

    Both categories trade oversold as NZD/USD and AUD/USD and cross pairs. trades overbought and targets 1.1284.



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